Where is the EUR going?

Firstly I want to say sorry because I haven´t written these two last days the EURUSD has risen a lot. Two days ago, the movement was greater than I expected.

Why does the EURUSD has gone up so quickly?
Let me sum up all the causes, I would divide on Tuesday and yesterday.
     Tuesday:
             -Good Spanish Unemployment change
             -Germany keeps 6.4% of unemployment rate
             -Astonishing UK construction PMI (55.9 vs 54.2)
             -Bigger UK mortgage approvals
             -Better than expected UK Net lending to Individuals
             -European CPI better than expected also Core CPI
             -Really bad US Factory Orders

      Yesterday:
             -Mixture of bad and good European Service PMI's (Germany and France showed good figures)
             -Good European Markit Composite PMI and really good Services PMI
             -Positive European Retail Sales
             -Better European Unemployment Rate
             -Better than expected US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
             -Worse than expected US figures: Markit Composite PMI, Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

The confirmation of the payment to the IMF by Greece has helped to boost the confidence in Europe. Also, a really good data for the Eurozone has helped the Euro to go up these days. I am quite skeptical about the situation of Greece. It is true that they are going to pay to IMF, but what will happen in the next payments. The opinions of the politicians are really different. Luis de Guindos, the Spanish finance minister, says that Greece won´t exit the Eurozone. In my humble opinion, it´s a really tough situation, if you are borrowing money you should reinvest this money and try to get bigger returns than the interest that you need pay to the lenders. It´s true that right now, the finance cost of Greece is cheaper than other countries that are in a better economic situation, but I think that its debt is really big.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD Daily 03/06/2015

As we can see in the chart in the last two days the Euro has strengthened according to the good inflation data of Europe. I keep the scenarios I say in one of my articles. For tomorrow this rate should move between 1.14474 and 1.10516.

 EURUSD Daily 03/06/2015

The major trend is bearish, but if the price goes above 1.14646 the bear trend will be finished. I can see some figures in the chart. The first one it's a triangle if this rate crosses the line above could go up even more if the price goes above 1.14646. If it breaks below it can look for the annual minimums.

EURUSD Daily Triangle



The next figure is a triangle, the explanation is the same.





EURUSD Daily Triangle

The next figure is a bear channel, I suppose it will go up a bit more and then it will fall.

 EURUSD Daily Bear Channel

Note
I quit my portfolio because I have to do some changes on the blog. I would like to create some portfolios, some of them discretionary trading and the rest will be algorithmic trading.
I have to admit that 2 days ago I did a big mess with my portfolio because when I did the analysis of EURUSD I didn´t include enough data to have in mind all the possible scenarios. When the price went more than X standard deviation I increased my position. So I would provide a new analysis including more sessions.
Have a good trading, keep on your rules and protect yourself from the improbable scenarios because sometimes happen.

#trading     #fx     #EURUSD    #Europe     #US