What has happened these days?
As you know, our rate went down on Friday. The oustanding US figures and the new Greek proposal drove down the EURUSD. But today the rate has covered the gap that was created by the US Non Farm Payrolls. Also Germany has released good figures in the morning:
-German Exports 1.9% instead of 0.1% expected
-German Imports worse than expected -1.3%
-German Industrial Production (MoM) 0.9% vs 0.5% expected
-German Trade Balance 22.3B vs 19.4B expected
EURUSD daily
The article of EURUSD was ok but a bit short, I mean, it could be more detailed. I can't upload the spreadsheet. I only do this blog because I love Financial Markets. I would like to upload even more analysis. Maybe I will do in the future, because right now I look for the data on Internet. If I had a special platform, it would be different, but step by step.
This chart show the evolution of the EURUSD. The technical indicators that appear in the chart are:
-EMA (20, 50, 100, 200)
-Stochastic
-ADX
I like the Exponential Moving Averages because they fit better than other kind of moving averages. If the price brokes one of the biggest moving averages, it will be a big movement. In my humble opinion it's good to have mind the moving averages.
The stochatic is a momentum indicator that shows the location of the close relative to the high-low range over a set number of periods. I really like the stochastic, if you are a day trader it can be useful.
The Average Directional Index measures the trend strength without regard the trend direction. It's useful to determine the direction and strength of the trend.
A lot of people follow MACD, RSI ... if you are interested in these indicators I would be happy to explain them. Personally I don't use technical indicators, but they are useful to make a point of view. If you use more than one indicator, you will trade less. If you add more indicators you are incrementing the degress of freedom, it means that you have less probability to get the signal to trade. If you prefer to use some indicators, I recommend you to backtest your strategy. Like I'm always saying it's better to have all the things in mind.
Where is the EURUSD going?
Like I wrote in one of my last articles. I think that the EUR should weaken versus the USD. The causes are:
1º The upcoming rise in the US interest rates.
2º The European QE should weaken the EUR.
3º The doubts about Greece.
4º The outstanding US employment data.
If you like technical analysis I see a triangle that it could drive this rate down.
We have to look every day because if the 1.14624 is broken this rate will go up.
Multi-Period Analysis of EURUSD
Let me show you the study I've done. I've compared the daily data, 4 hours data, 1 hour data and 30 minutes data.
| Daily | 4 Hours | 1 Hour | 30 Min | |
| Min Yield | -2,73% | -1,43% | -1,18% | -1,12% |
| Max Yield | 3,44% | 1,39% | 0,95% | 1,15% |
| Range | 6,17% | 2,82% | 2,13% | 2,27% |
| Intervals | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| intervals var | 0,22% | 0,10% | 0,08% | 0,08% |
| Mean | -0,0030% | -0,0060% | -0,0035% | 0,0008% |
| Variance | 0,0034% | 0,0004% | 0,0002% | 0,0002% |
| Std Deviation | 0,5858% | 0,2061% | 0,1567% | 0,1254% |
| Variation Coef | -0,0050 | -0,0290 | -0,0223 | 0,0062 |
| Asymetric Coef | 0,0553 | -0,0428 | 0,0117 | 0,2095 |
| kurtosis | 2,7918 | 8,5480 | 6,4267 | 11,3306 |
| Excess of kurtosis | -0,2082 | 5,5480 | 3,4267 | 8,3306 |
This table shows the summary of the data. As we can see all the means are around 0. The standard deviation increments because in long periods the price moves more. One of the most important statistical figure is the excess of kurtosis because it measures the the excess of data that are in the tails. In order to do that we should do the kurtosis minus 3. As we can see in 30min period study there are a lot of outliers.
I hope you have enjoyed this article. I am open to receive questions and suggestions.
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