Monday 27 August 2018

How to get 1 Million Dollars (or Euros, or British Pounds…)


Introduction

The other day, I had a really interesting conversation with one of my friends. It was the kind of thought that we can have on Sundays. We were wondering how to get one million dollars (or Euros, British Pounds, it's applicable to all currencies)

Discussion

In the beginning, we were saying silly things that come from social media and it's difficult to verify if it's true or not. After that, we briefly talked about real estate. Everything looked great but the high capital required to invest in this kind of asset makes it difficult (without having already saved part of the mortgage)

We follow the main hedge funds, so we started talking about trading legends such as Jim Simons, George Soros, Warren Buffet, Ray Dalio, Steve Cohen, William Ackman and Ken Griffin (The list is really big, they are only a few of the best)


The next table shows the 3-year compound return for some hedge funds:

 Penta Top 100 Hedge Funds, Source: Barrons
                 Penta Top 100 Hedge Funds, Source: Barrons

You can find the whole list on the link below:

This idea was great but considering that some of the strategies used by hedge funds (and asset management, CTAs… ) require big sums of money, it was discarded automatically. In addition, we don´t know wealthy investors and we don’t have any track record.  Another solution is to invest directly in one of these entities, but again, the mínimum investment is pretty high.
At this point, we were aware of the reality but I said that we can get it! The only requirement is commitment and patience (this will be discussed later on)

The model

Before I explain this model I would like to make some assumptions:

  • I consider that the money saved every month is the same for the whole life of the individual.
  • All the savings are for investment purposes.
  • The individual can’t withdraw any money once it´s invested.
  • The return is positive for the whole life of the investment (the return is considered as an annual average return of the investment)
  • The investment is not defined
So basically there is no secret, the idea is based on saving money every month and invest it in the asset that you consider suitable for you. 



The table used for the calculation, own elaboration
       The table used for the calculation, own elaboration

As you can see the table has different columns, let me explain them. The year and the month are in order for charting purposes. The savings is the amount saved per month (in the example is 500 but I´ve done it for 300, 700 and 1000 units of currency every month) The rest of the columns represent a financial calculation to reflect the effect of investment (in that case, I’ve chosen monthly compounding (Amount saved * (1 + Annual return % ) ^ (1/12)) 


 Example of the first 5 months and the last 5 months, own elaboration
     Example of the first 5 months and the last 5 months, own elaboration

This is the same table as the previous one. I want to show the top and the bottom of the table used for the charts that I’m going to explain now. 


Total savings after 40 years without investing them, own elaboration
      Total savings after 40 years without investing them, own elaboration

These are the amount we would have after 40 years (or 480 months) without investing. Obviously, if you save more, you will be wealthier in the future.



Final amount after investing for 40 years, own elaboration
      Final amount after investing for 40 years, own elaboration

This table is really interesting because shows the capital after investing for 40 years. Here we can see why investing is very important to build wealth. Let's say that we can afford to save 300 units of currency per month. After 40 years, we check the account and we can find 2 outcomes depending on if we decided to invest or not. Without investing the savings, we would have 144000 while if we had invested at 5% per year, we would have made 446569,38. Investing generates 3 times more money than only saving (there is risk in every investment and you should check if it’s suitable with you or not) Returning 10% or more per year is not impossible but doing consistently is very difficult. However, if you get it, you will see your investments grow quickly. 



Charts about the lifetime investment for the different average returns and savings levels, own elaboration

  Charts about the lifetime investment for the different average returns and savings levels, own elaboration

Here we can see the effect of compound interest over time. As Albert Einstein said once: “the power of compound interest the most powerful force in the universe”

Now coming back to the title of this post, let’s find out how many months of savings we need to reach 1 million:


Months needed to reach 1000000, own elaboration
      Months needed to reach 1000000, own elaboration

Sadly for the lower saving quantities is not possible to reach this figure or a high return is needed. Sadly there is a high risk involved in strategies that return high return.  For the rest is easier but it’s not an overnight process. At this point, we need patience and keep working hard.

Why only a few percentage of people become as wealthy as in the example?

  • Investing is not as linear as I showed. There are years in which you make a profit and years in which you may lose money or even you can be breakeven.
  • Saving money sometimes depends on a personal situation (There are so many things in life more important than saving a fixed amount every month)
  • At the beginning of your professional career the salary is low and after that, it should adjust according to the experience.
  • After saving “X” amount of money, you can think of relocating to a better property, getting a car or something that won't allow you save as you have been doing until now (maybe your salary has increased enough to cover this expenditure via personal loan but it’s difficult and it doesn’t apply to everyone)
  • The example shown doesn’t apply to everyone because you need to work for the next 40 years.



Conclusion

Even if getting a million is difficult, it’s not impossible. If your personal situation allows you to save and invest every month, the only secret is Commitment and Patience. You need to understand the investments and the risk involved.

All the best!!




Sunday 19 August 2018

SP500 vs Gold, using their correlation to make a trading strategy (Part 1)


This post is part of a new series in which I will show how to figure out if we can build a strategy using some assets’ correlation. Let me introduce the assets:


S&P500

Mini S&P500 future (continuous contract), daily, Source: TradingView
    Mini S&P500 future (continuous contract), daily, Source: TradingView

The Standard & Poor's 500 is one of the main American stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ. As you can see, this index hasn´t stopped raising since 2011. 

Gold

Comex Gold future (continuous contract), daily, Source: TradingView
    Comex Gold future (continuous contract), daily, Source: TradingView

The Comex Gold is one of the most important futures. You can trade it directly or you can use it to hedge your stock portfolio. Historically this hedge has been successful and has protected the portfolios versus big drawdowns. It´s recommended to have at least a small part of your investments in gold (even if it´s in an exchange-traded fund that tracks this metal)


I reviewed Gold futures and ETF´s last year: Gold Analysis

 


Spread between SP500 and Gold

Spread between SP500 and Gold futures, daily, Source: TradingView
    Spread between SP500 and Gold futures, daily, Source: TradingView

To simplify the calculation, I decided to make the spread as 1 E-mini S&P500 future minus 1 Comex Gold future. As you can see, the relationship was negative before 2013 because the gold price was higher than the S&P. Since then, this spread has raised almost like the US index. This explains that the different QE programs calmed down the uncertainty (so the investors started buying the S&P and started selling or reducing their gold portfolio)


Introduction to the study

Correlation series

For this part, I chose 4 correlation series (20, 60, 120 and 250 days) that represent different time frames. 


Correlation time frames table, own elaboration
      Correlation time frames table, own elaboration

The main reason for choosing this time frames is to make comparisons and to see if I can work out a strategy in the following posts. 



 S&P500 and Gold correlation series, own elaboration
     S&P500 and Gold correlation series, own elaboration

We can’t get any conclusion from this chart apart that the long-term correlation between S&P500 and gold is negative (the most part of the time).  One of the things I would like to study in the following days is if I can build a profitable system based on the correlation series divergences. For now, I can show the different charts with the asset prices and the correlation (The Y left axis represents the price of the assets and the Y right axis represents the correlation coefficient):


 S&P500, Gold, and  20 days correlation serie, own elaboration
     S&P500, Gold, and  20 days correlation serie, own elaboration

This chart doesn’t show any clear relationship. Another problem is that is a short-term correlation that generates a lot of noise in the signals and it´s difficult to know if it´s worth to check this correlation to trade the spread.



S&P500, Gold, and  60 days correlation serie, own elaboration
    S&P500, Gold, and  60 days correlation serie, own elaboration

The 60-day correlation is smoother than the previous one. I think that we can take advantage of the correlation every time that is above 0, however, a statistical study is required. 


 S&P500, Gold, and  120 and 250 days correlation series, own elaboration
  S&P500, Gold, and  120 and 250 days correlation series, own elaboration

As I said before, we can see that the most part of the time these correlations are below 0. Like in the previous chart we can take advantage of the correlation above 0. In addition, I would be interesting to study a trading system based on the 120 days correlations that trigger a trade every time is under -0.2. In terms of correlation’s divergence, we need to backtest it properly.

Sum up

I’ve chosen these assets because they are really important. The S&P500 reflects the US economy and the Comex Gold can be used as an investment or as a hedge vs the main index in a recession. Sadly this post is an introduction. I will analyze the systems proposed using advanced statistics and some backtests. As a reminder, the systems will be based on the correlation and its divergences. 



#trading #investing #correlation #ES #GC #SP500 #Gold #statistics

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