Analysis of EURUSD daily

As I commented days ago I promised to upload a detailed analysis of the EURUSD.

The daily evolution of this rate is the following:

EURUSD Daily 29/05/2015

As we can see the major trend is bear. The most important levels for me are 1.14646, 1.09661, 1.07333, 1.04932. If the last two days bull trend continues and the price goes above 1.14646, it means that our bear trend will have finished by then. This scenario doesn´t have so much probability at the moment, but I think is good to have in mind. Yesterday the US figures weren't good and if we add the Greek confirmation of the payment to the IMF on the 5th of June, we realize the reason because it closed up. The next level is 1.09661, well EURUSD closed above this level, if the price goes below this rate it´s highly probable that this rate can go around 1.0733. For me the second scenario is the most probable, but we will see the evolution during the next week. The third scenario is that if the price goes bellow 1.07333, it will go down looking for the minimums of this year (1.04932)

Charting Analysis

EURUSD Daily

In the daily chart I draw a doble botton and two bear triangles.

EURUSD 4Hour 29/05/2015

As we can see the bear movements are more aggresive than the bull ones.

Statistical Analysis

I really like the statistical analysis because maths are always right, also you can realize about a lots of things.

N	312
Min Yield	-2,12%
Max Yield	2,14%
Range	4,26%
Intervals	20
intervals var	0,21%
Mean	-0,070%
Variance	0,0031%
Std Deviation	0,5586%
Variation Coef	-0,1255
Asymetric Coef	-0,1808
kurtosis	1,9232

This table represents the statistical analysis of the daily yield of EURUSD.

Maybe with this graphs I can help you to understand more or less the movements of the EURUSD. Also you can adapt your strategy. In the future I would add tecnical indicators, correlation with other pair of currencies, correlations with other assets. trading sistems. Anyway if you are interested in asking me something, feel free to ask me. Thank you, have a good weekend. 

Again EURUSD up!!!

For my own surprise, EURUSD has finished up, at least I have made profit. As I'm commenting these days I´m negative with the Euro. The main reason is the Greece doubts. Today Deutsche Bank has published a report of the different outcomes to the Greek tragicomedy. Let me share a link from Zero Hedge:
"The Greek Endgame Is Here": Probability Of IMF Default Now 70%, Says Deutsche Bank


The next reason is the rise of interest rates in US. I have another reasons but they are political. Europe in my humble opinion should be a real economic union, and agree a fiscal standard for all of the countries.

EURUSD 5Min 28/05/2015




This picture shows the trading session for EURUSD. I drew a resistance in the 1.09197 level but finaly was broken at 17:45. My forecast is that the euro should weak against the dollar. The US economy is improving step by step. In my opinion the implementation of the different QE's was successful at least for the markets.




What can we expect tomorrow?


This pair will move tomorrow between 1.10328 and 1.08797. The most important figures tomorrow are:
 -US GDP Price Index (QoQ)
 -Chicago PMI
 -Michigan Consumer Expectations
 -Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Good Luck tomorrow I wish you a good trading day. I will upload more detailed analysis in the future.

Difficult trading session for EURUSD

At the  beginning of the sesión EURUSD was falling until the 1.08250,showing the strenghten of the US Economy. In my opinion this movement was normal, but I was surprised when the price went bellow 1.08302 because this level was an important support for me. My biggest surprise has occurred when during the afternoon the price went up to the levels of the beginning of the sesión.

EURUSD 5Min 27/05/15

We have the Greece problem. J.P. Morgan said that: "Greece is not investable". But anybody know about the negociations. I'm not positive. Trading with these enviroment it's quite tricky because a little rumor can produce a big movement.

EURUSD 1Day 27/05/15

I think it should go down, but we will see. Keep your trading rules always. Have a good trading!!!

Dull session for EURUSD

Today's trading session has been really quiet. Without any news and bank holiday in London, this rate hasn't moved at all.

 

EURUSD 15Min, 25/05/2015

 

Anyway we should have in mind the war between the different Central Banks, because their decisions can be critical for the move of the rates. Also there are strong rumors about the Brexit.

Let me show you a link of the blog ZeroHedge:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-25/ecbs-bizarro-qe-taper-may-add-summer-bond-market-volatility-citi-says

Tomorrow we  should be prepare for the US data: Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM), Durable Good  Orders (MoM), Services PMI, CB Consumer Confidence, and New Home Sales.
For now my forecast is right, we will see if it keeps going down. Good luck with your trading and follow strictly the rules of your trading rules.

Suprising US CPI

During the last Friday a better than expected US CPI was unveiled. 1,8%!!! It showed the improvement of the US economy. Even when the EURUSD was up in the trading session and once this figure was unveiled this rate fell down straightaway.  The answer of the EURUSD was clear. Also with the doubts of Greece and the early boughts of the bonds from the ECB, I think it should fall. It closed at 1.10107

EURUSD 5Min 19/05/2015

I was short, anyway it is a demo account. For these kind of situations try to be out of the market or hedged. Always follow your strategy.
We will see how the EURUSD moves during the next week. I guess is going to keep falling but it´s only my macroeconomic perspective. Don´t use my advices as a trading decisión. Have a good week!!!


Welcome to FX and Fixed Income Trading

Firstly I would like to introduce myself. I am Rodrigo Perez. I am a master's graduate in Financial Markets. Trading is one of my passions. I would like to share my ideas about fx and fixed income markets. I am open to receive suggestions. I will upload some statistical studies. In the future, I will include Trading Systems with their performance and risk indicators.
Thank you for visiting my blog.