Showing posts with label EUR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EUR. Show all posts

Monday, 13 April 2020

6th day, no gain no loss…



As you can imagine after reading the title, it was a flat day. Actually, I made a small profit but it didn’t cover the commissions. Let’s see what happened during that day in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD futures:


British Pound


It was a directional day for the British Pound without any big spike or swings as we saw in the previous days.  This was explained by the increase of COVID-19 cases in the US and the expected approval of further help by the FED.

6B 06/20 


It raised almost without stopping until 14:30 where the price was ranging between 1.2387 and 1.2405. In one of these retracements, the algo was triggered and it sent a buy of 5 lots. I wasn’t sure about opening the position considering its morning trend and range. One of the best aspects of using algos is that we remove discretionary decisions and feelings. After entering in the position, like the most part of the times, the GBP/USD futures fell to 1.2374. After that, it rebounded breaking the highs of the day and it reached the 1.2429 level. It couldn’t breach these levels and it went back to 1.2400 where the algo closed the position.

6B 06/20 trade chart


This chart shows more detailed of what I explained in the previous paragraph.

6B 06/20 trade


In contrast with other days, the MAE ($437.50) is around 1/3 of the MFE ($1281.25) and this shows how well the market behaved for the algo I’m using. One of the problems is that the ETD is still high because the algo is not closing with a signal. Until now, the algo has closed according to the time configured.


Euro FX


The Euro vs the US Dollar didn’t have a clear trend. It was a total swing. It seems that the EUR was stronger in the morning while the USD took its place in the afternoon.

6E 06/20


As you can see, and as it was expected, the algo was triggered in a retracement. It performed well during the first hour. After that, the Euro dropped strongly but seems that the traders didn’t believe in this movement and the buying pressure took the price to the point in which the position was open. At this point, it continued to rise to 1.0909 where the dollar strength came back. The position was closed at 17:08 London Time

Trades and account balance


I didn’t get profit in both trades. I lost $398.75 in the EuroFX trade including commissions and I won $395.75 in the British Pound also including commissions.

08/04/2020 trades


I shouldn’t be upset… I made a profit without considering commissions. At the end of the day is not real money and this is good learning and I would like to remember that in my opinion the commissions and the slippage should be included when you are backtesting a system. In my experience, if the system is not good enough this will make the difference between making profit or loss.

Account Balance


One of the conclusions that I found in the first 6 days is that probably I should implement a fixed take profit or maybe consider a trailing stop. It’s early to say but probably I will run some tests to see if the statistic ratios are better than my current algo.

Thanks for reading this post!


#algorithmic_trading, #Trading, #Euro, #EUR, #GBP, #British Pound, #USD, #EURUSD, #GBPUSD, #Dollar, #performance, #profit, #loss, #FED, #COVID-19, #Robotrader

Tuesday, 14 November 2017

Europe strength, UK inflation


We had a lot of data today. Early in the morning, we have seen an outstanding German GDP. The next big announcement was the UK CPI that surprisingly has shown the same reading as the previous one. Followed by this, the German ZEW economic sentiment and the European GDP.At the same time, the central bank governors from the Fed, BCE, BoE, and BoJ were in a communication event hosted by the European Central Bank. Let’s check more in detail what happened with the British Pound and the Euro.

UK inflation data


As I said before, the UK CPI has been released at 9:30. The reading was 3,00%, the same as the September figure. This makes pressure to the Bank of England. Will they raise rates in December? On the other hand, the uncertainty about getting a Brexit deal is growing. If the policymakers don´t reach a deal focused on trade, the British economy will suffer due to the contingency plans from the private companies. In this theoretical scenario, the BoE will be in trouble because the inflation will peak and they have a limited margin to raise the overnight rate due to the high level of debt held by the households. This scenario has a low probability in my opinion.


GBPUSD December 2017 future

     Source: TradingView, GBPUSD Dec 17 futures, daily

Here we can see a bearish trend in the British Pound vs the US Dollar that seems that it’s consolidating and creating a strong resistance around 1.3070. This trend signals the disappointment of the rate rise in the current situation and the uncertainty of Brexit.

     Source: TradingView, GBPUSD Dec 17 futures, 30 min

The reaction of the strong UK CPI has been negative for the GBP in the first two hours after the release. After that, it has recovered. 


    Source: TradingView, GBPUSD Dec 17 futures, daily

The Pound has broken higher while I was writing this post. Head and shoulders confirmed.


European data


Europe has shown its strength with the macroeconomic data today. This morning Germany has released a strong Gross Domestic Product. The GDP (YoY) was in line with the expectations, but the GBP (QoQ) was better than the forecast.


      Source: ZeroHedge, chart taken from Bloomberg

The Geman ZEW economic sentiment was slightly worse than expected, 18.7 vs 20 expected by the analysts. The European GDP growth was in 2.5% and the industrial production 3.3%. These figures confirm the good moment of the European economy.

EURUSD December 2017 future

     Source: TradingView, EURUSD Dec 17, daily

The USD has been raising vs the Euro since September. The European Central Bank has shown its conservative side while the Fed is clearly hawkish. Today the central banks' governors agreed that the economic policy will take part only if the improvement of the economies continues. 

Source: TradingView, EURUSD Dec 17, 30 min

The Euro has rocketed today with the positive data. The strange thing is that we haven’t seen any retracement.

Conclusion


It’s been a good day for the euro but there are some issues to resolve. The main concern is the European inflation is not as high as the BCE would like it. The strengthening of the euro can lead to keeping the inflation low and Draghi knows about it. In the other side, the Bank of England is raising rates in order to fight the inflation.  This is not well seen by the market participants due to the Brexit uncertainty. In the other side of the Atlantic, Janet Yellen confirmed that the Fed will raise rates according to the economic improvement. Working nowadays in a central bank is not easy, considering that they need to be careful with their language, prepare the markets to avoid repercussions on the real economy and guide consumers about the expected outlook. All of these things shouldn't affect your trading but I think macroeconomics is helpful at least to understand the big movements.
Have a good trading!



Disclaimer

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions that shouldn't be used as a trading advice. Trading carries considerable risk due to the high leverage involved

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