Economic calendar, GBP/USD futures analysis

Maybe is the topic of the week but today I’m going to analize the GBP/USD future, before that I would like to show the most important macroeconomic releases we will see this week:

Economic Calendar

Monday                                                                             Expected    Last

GBP Construction PMI (Jun)                                   50.5        51.2       

Tuesday

GBP Services PMI (Jun)                                          52.7        53.5

Wednesday

USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)     160K     173K

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)               53.3        52.9       

Thursday

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May)       -1.0%     2.3%

USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)     160K      173K

Friday

USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)                                   175K      38K

USD Unemployment Rate (Jun)                               4.8%      4.7%

GBP/USD

After the Brexit, all bankers are concern about the value of the sterling pound. The jittery fx markets are waiting for a clear response from the policy markers. If you remember Mark Carney’s speech, you can think that the monetary easing will devalue the sterling pound. Supply and demand law. Let’s compare EE.UU. with UK:

·         The FED was the first central bank to apply monetary easing after the financial crisis, since then the american economy has improved significantly.

·         UK has been performing really well during the last 2 years, the MPC could have risen interest rates before.

What has happened since the Black Friday?

All things we had in our agendas have blown up. Apparently the market participants speculate that the FED will delay the interest rates rise. The most part of the investors are convinced that the gold’s value will go up. Jim Rogers, famous investor, disagrees with betting on gold as a safe haven. He said that he prefers to buy the USD because the value of the gold is too high.

    GBP/USD, daily, from 23/09/2015 to 1/07/2016

In my opinion, during the next three months, the GBP/USD pair can rebound to 1.35, but after that it will go under 1.30. This forecast is based in fundamental things like the monetary easing and the political uncertainty. After October I prefer to be cautious, and be aware about the UK election. It’s going to be a difficult year having in mind that EE.UU. will have elections on the 8th of November.

This post is not an investment recomendation, it’s my own forecast. I will keep updating this post with statistical analysis.